Rebuilt as each release lands

EIG GDPcast

An independent, live U.S. GDP forecast built from 17 NIPA components — rebuilt automatically as new government data lands.

Current-quarter nowcast

+3.5%

real GDP growth, SAAR — 2026Q3 · +7.1% nominal

Last updated Oct 2, 2026, 2:25 PM ET — triggered by Employment Situation.

GDPcast release note — auto-written Oct 2, 2026, 2:25 PM ET

September payrolls rose 29 thousand, with private service-providing employment down 9 thousand and government employment down 17 thousand, while average hourly earnings held at 37.8 dollars per hour. The softer government reading added 0.01pp through state & local government, leaving the move in line and the 2026Q3 GDPcast unchanged at 3.5%. Next watch: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, due October 6.

Recession risk

Methodology & history →

Near-term

Recession within 6 months

1.0%

Yield curve

Recession within 12 months

14.1%

GDPcast-implied

Technical recession odds, from this forecast

Within 4 quarters

2.3%

Within 8 quarters

7.8%

State outlook

Full map & methodology →

State Outlook

4-quarter-average growth, by industry mix and momentum

Leading

TX+3.8%
NM+3.6%
WA+3.5%

Lagging

DC+1.3%
IA+1.7%
SD+1.9%

Subcomponent contributions to the 2026Q3 GDPcast forecast

How each major NIPA category has pushed the forecast up or down on each day new data moved it this quarter. Days with no material change are not shown. Hover a bar or point for detail.

Consumer spending (PCE)

Nonresidential fixed investment

Residential investment

Change in private inventories

Net exports

Government spending

GDPcast forecast

Contribution to current-quarter growth, by component

PCE — Services+1.56pp

Change in private inventories+1.27pp

Nonresidential — Equipment+0.97pp

Nonresidential — Intellectual property products+0.66pp

PCE — Nondurable goods+0.39pp

PCE — Durable goods+0.36pp

Nonresidential — Structures+0.27pp

Exports — Services+0.12pp

State & local government+0.11pp

Federal — Nondefense+0.07pp

Federal — Defense+0.04pp

Imports — Services-0.05pp

Residential investment-0.10pp

Exports — Goods-0.70pp

Imports — Goods-1.44pp

Recent forecast changes

Employment Situation: +0.01pp to 2026Q3 state_local contribution; headline 3.5 → 3.5

Oct 2, 2026, 2:25 PM ET — Employment Situation

Construction Spending: +0.19pp to 2026Q3 residential contribution; headline 3.2 → 3.5

Oct 1, 2026, 2:53 PM ET — Construction Spending

Construction Spending: +0.12pp to 2026Q3 nonres_structures contribution; headline 3.2 → 3.5

Oct 1, 2026, 2:53 PM ET — Construction Spending

Construction Spending: +0.02pp to 2026Q3 state_local contribution; headline 3.2 → 3.5

Oct 1, 2026, 2:53 PM ET — Construction Spending

Personal Income and Outlays (incl. monthly PCE): +0.36pp to 2026Q3 pce_durables contribution; headline 2.5 → 3.2

Sep 30, 2026, 2:27 PM ET — Personal Income and Outlays (incl. monthly PCE)

Data update: +0.17pp to 2026Q3 ip contribution; headline 2.5 → 3.2

Sep 30, 2026, 2:27 PM ET

Data update: +0.01pp to 2026Q3 residential contribution; headline 2.5 → 3.2

Sep 30, 2026, 2:27 PM ET

Personal Income and Outlays (incl. monthly PCE): -0.12pp to 2026Q3 pce_services contribution; headline 2.5 → 3.2

Sep 30, 2026, 2:27 PM ET — Personal Income and Outlays (incl. monthly PCE)