Rebuilt as each release lands
EIG GDPcast
An independent, live 8-quarter U.S. GDP forecast built from 17 NIPA components — rebuilt automatically as new government data lands.
Current-quarter nowcast
+2.2%
real GDP growth, SAAR — 2026Q3 · +6.1% nominal
Last updated Aug 15, 2026, 2:48 PM ET.
8-quarter forecast evolution
Shaded band = ±1 RMSE from EIG's 2016–2025 pseudo-real-time backtest (ex-2020).
Contribution to current-quarter growth, by component
PCE — Services+1.05pp
Change in private inventories+0.54pp
Nonresidential — Intellectual property products+0.49pp
Nonresidential — Equipment+0.48pp
PCE — Durable goods+0.27pp
Exports — Services+0.22pp
State & local government+0.08pp
Federal — Nondefense+0.08pp
Federal — Defense+0.05pp
Nonresidential — Structures+0.03pp
PCE — Nondurable goods0.00pp
Residential investment-0.04pp
Imports — Goods-0.08pp
Imports — Services-0.15pp
Exports — Goods-0.79pp
Recent forecast changes
No attribution entries yet.
Full path
| Quarter | Real GDP (SAAR) | Nominal GDP (SAAR) | Nominal level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3nowcast | +2.2% | +6.1% | $32.97T |
| 2026Q4 | +2.3% | +6.1% | $33.48T |
| 2027Q1 | +2.1% | +6.0% | $33.98T |
| 2027Q2 | +2.1% | +5.9% | $34.49T |
| 2027Q3 | +2.0% | +5.8% | $34.99T |
| 2027Q4 | +1.9% | +5.8% | $35.50T |
| 2028Q1 | +1.9% | +5.7% | $36.02T |
| 2028Q2 | +1.9% | +5.7% | $36.53T |
| 2028Q3 | +1.8% | +5.7% | $37.06T |